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Holger Zschaepitz

Holger Zschäpitz is market maniac at @Welt & Author of 'Schulden ohne Sühne?' a book on states' addictiveness to debt. Pics: https://t.co/ElZqiPWhXt
 
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HEUTE, SONNTAG, 21.10.2018
16:14 US’ » TRUMP »

A safe way to further increase US’ twin deficits (budget balance & current account balance): Trump considers tax-cut sweetener days before crucial midterms. Landmark 2017 tax law has been criticized for helping wealthy. https://t.co/RYL6RCGNb8
Holger Zschaepitz
Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner 16:14 - 21.10.2018

11:37 ITALIAN » MOODY’S »

Italian markets set for relief as risk of junk rating retreats. Moody’s cut keeps #Italy 1 notch above junk with ‘stable’ outlook. https://t.co/gNVOMXiynI
Holger Zschaepitz
Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner 11:37 - 21.10.2018

11:15 GERMANY » SAUDIS »

#Germany puts military sales to Saudis on hold following the death of government critic Jamal Khashoggi. Saudi Arabia ranked sixth last year with approved sales of 254 million euros. https://t.co/Dxm53DSNxs
Holger Zschaepitz
Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner 11:15 - 21.10.2018

10:57 GOOD » MORNING »

Good Morning from #Germany where the Grand Coalition continues to slip in opinion polls. Merkels CDU/CSU drops to 25%, Merkels coalition partner SPD to 15%. The main winners are the Greens, who gain 2 points and now come to 19%. Right wing AfD unchanged at 15%. https://t.co/DjnTCuK9Bz
Holger Zschaepitz
Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner 10:57 - 21.10.2018

GESTERN, SAMSTAG, 20.10.2018
22:58 BLACKROCK » ETF »

BlackRock shares have dropped 30% from their peak in a warning sign of deeper problems in the ETF market. https://t.co/zT7e0ldAzd
Holger Zschaepitz
Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner 22:58 - 20.10.2018

14:34 ETF » MONSTER »

It looks like the rise of passive has created a ETF Monster. This mnth alone, investors traded $1.4tn of ETFs (32% of consolidated tape) & $1.7tn notional of ETF options, Goldman says. ETFs have seen $15bn of outflows in Oct, led by US Equity, responsible for the recent sell-off. https://t.co/BQcZNG8MLY
Holger Zschaepitz
Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner 14:34 - 20.10.2018

10:22 WHAT » WESTERN »

What are Western values worth to us? Trump resists Saudi-Crisis pressure, citing $450bn at risk. https://t.co/nNmmp1feZi
Holger Zschaepitz
Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner 10:22 - 20.10.2018

9:38 AFTER » SAUDI »

After two weeks of shifting stories, Saudi Arabia says Jamal Khashoggi was killed in consulate fist fight. The Saudis initially claimed that Mr. Khashoggi had left the consulate alive, later hinting that the killing might have been the act of rogue agents. https://t.co/kp6nlvbNtW
Holger Zschaepitz
Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner 9:38 - 20.10.2018

9:20 ITALY’S » MOODY’S »

#Italy’s credit rating cut by Moody’s to one level above junk on concerns about fiscal strength & stalling of plans for structural reform. Most of govts spending increases are structural in nature, implying that they will be difficult to reverse. https://t.co/HxfaTiAsbG
Holger Zschaepitz
Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner 9:20 - 20.10.2018

8:57 GOOD » GERMANY »

Good morning from #Germany where banks have cut their financial exposure to #Italy from $95.4bn in Q1 2018 to $91.3bn in Q2 2018, acc to BIS. But German banks have much less to lose than French banks should Italy slide into default. #Frances banks have $315.7bn at risk in Italy. https://t.co/VpSCTdaIsH
Holger Zschaepitz
Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner 8:57 - 20.10.2018

FREITAG, 19.10.2018
22:04 HEDGE » FUNDS »

Hedge Funds increase their bearish Euro bets to highest level since Mar2017. Speculators sell another 13,202 contracts; now short 29,344 contracts. https://t.co/ld3EFVR5C8
Holger Zschaepitz
Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner 22:04 - 19.10.2018

18:56 EURO » ITALY »

#Euro jumps back >$1.15 on headlines form #Italy. Italy govt may cut 2019 deficit target to 2.1%, Foglio reports. Italy PM Conte has said the govt will meet on Sat to discuss budget and tax issues. https://t.co/vNxBLTKIhk
Holger Zschaepitz
Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner 18:56 - 19.10.2018

18:24 EUROPEAN » AUTOS »

European Autos are the new banks as Daimlers 2nd profit warning highlights. EuroStoxx Autos now down 22% YTD, almost as negative as EuroStoxx Banks Index. https://t.co/CBl1iFJOGW
Holger Zschaepitz
Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner 18:24 - 19.10.2018

17:08 ITALY » ECB »

More trouble for #Italy? #ECB cap key will be rebalanced in Jan2019. Italy will lose approx. 1ppt while Germany will gain same magnitude due to the result of Germany outgrowing Italy on both GDP & population growth. This could have an impact on the PSPP and/or the reinvestments. https://t.co/3fVVyJA3pL
Holger Zschaepitz
Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner 17:08 - 19.10.2018

16:25 TURKEY »

#Turkey liras longest rally since 2014 has traders betting the worst is over. I would not be so sure. https://t.co/6kBanuGeGQ
Holger Zschaepitz
Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner 16:25 - 19.10.2018

15:48 PODCAST » DIETMAR »

The making of a Podcast: Dietmar and I after the preparations for Episode 25. #deffnerundzschaepitz #workingwithcoolpeople @ WeWork Atrium Tower https://t.co/5xMOHQn45Q
Holger Zschaepitz
Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner 15:48 - 19.10.2018

12:04 LOOKS » ITALY »

Looks as if markets have the upper hand. #Italy 5y default probability jumps in showdown between Rome and Brussels. https://t.co/mcBFw8vHph
Holger Zschaepitz
Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner 12:04 - 19.10.2018

11:40 DOOM » DEFAULT »

Doom loop in action. Default probabilities of Italian banks keep rising as #Italys default probability hit 20% on budget woes. https://t.co/USf6lMrGcY
Holger Zschaepitz
Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner 11:40 - 19.10.2018

9:54 ITALIAN » USING »

Italian bonds dont have history on their side. Using the eurozone sovereign debt crisis era as a base, it looks as though the nation is very close to losing the confidence of international investors, John Authers writes. https://t.co/uV3kepC0dQ
Holger Zschaepitz
Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner 9:54 - 19.10.2018

9:04 AFTER » ITALY’S »

After EU ramped up criticism of #Italy’s budget plans, calling planned deviation from EU rules “unprecedented,” theres now a clear risk that investors test the 400bps level for the 10y yield spread to bunds. After Red Flag from EU,10y Italy risk spread rises to 328bps. https://t.co/91Hnv1bQ4l
Holger Zschaepitz
Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner 9:04 - 19.10.2018

8:56 STOCKS » CHINA »

Stocks mixed as #China rallies on intervention after country’s growth slowed. China 3Q GDP was slight miss at 6.5%y/y. A top Financial Official voiced support for battered stock mkt, strengthen expectations that authorities will put floor under stocks. Bond yields & Dollar steady https://t.co/QACTY09Vfc
Holger Zschaepitz
Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner 8:56 - 19.10.2018

8:40 GOOD » GERMANY »

Good morning from #Germany where house prices keep rising. Europace German House Price Index has hit fresh high at 129.84. Since Feb2010 avg existing homes prices have gained 63% in tandem with ECB balance sheet. In hot spots much more, prices have increased even more. https://t.co/jnRLyIC2lF
Holger Zschaepitz
Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner 8:40 - 19.10.2018

1:33 MARKETS » SAUDI »

Markets getting more & more nervous w/ Saudi Arabia. Default probability jumps as Trump says Khashoggi likely dead, warns of ‘severe’ consequences https://t.co/SKkyTncBYa
Holger Zschaepitz
Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner 1:33 - 19.10.2018

0:23 PREDICTING » JPMORGAN »

Predicting when the next recession will hit has become so popular that betting odds cant be far behind. There seems to be consensus forming around 2020. US has a greater than 50-50 chance of tipping into a recession in the next two years, JPMorgan says. https://t.co/O10lBHrP3g
Holger Zschaepitz
Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner 0:23 - 19.10.2018

DONNERSTAG, 18.10.2018
14:49 ITALY »

#Italy 10y risk spread jumps to 313bps, highest since 2013 as bond buybacks weigh. https://t.co/VQH9JOVURz
Holger Zschaepitz
Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner 14:49 - 18.10.2018

13:19 AXEL » SPRINGER »

#coffeebreak! @ Axel-Springer-Passage https://t.co/oHptoBjmMI
Holger Zschaepitz
Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner 13:19 - 18.10.2018

8:56 CHINA » SHANGHAI »

#China doom in one chart: Shanghai Comp plunges in tandem w/ currency. Yuan depreciates to weakest level since Jan2017. https://t.co/ERjD7Zgzro
Holger Zschaepitz
Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner 8:56 - 18.10.2018

8:47 OIL » DEBT »

#Oil, #Debt, #Iran, Silicon Valley venture capital. Trump has maneuvered the world into a dangerous dependence on the Saudis. Saudi Arabie is 3rd largest oil producer, biggest tech financier and among the top holders of US Treasuries. https://t.co/9WKxNCDhRH via @welt
Holger Zschaepitz
Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner 8:47 - 18.10.2018

8:17 ASIA » FOMC »

Asia stocks falter in the wake of hawkish FOMC minutes, not helped by Yuan sliding after US decided not to label China a currency manipulator. China mkts knocked by renewed trade fears. Yuan hits lowest since 2017. US Treasury yields & Dollar up after Fed minutes. US 10y at 3.20% https://t.co/iqO791FByl
Holger Zschaepitz
Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner 8:17 - 18.10.2018

7:56 GOOD » MORNING »

Good Morning from #Germany where Deutsche Bank CEO Sewing & Siemens Boss Kaeser are among a dwindling number of high-profile delegates planning to go to a Saudi investment conference following the disappearance of dissident journalist Jamal Khashoggi. https://t.co/XWnCNnlAH5
Holger Zschaepitz
Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner 7:56 - 18.10.2018

1:39 CHINA » YUAN »

US spares China from Yuan-manipulator label amid trade war largely in line with what was leaked to the press late last week. Moreover, the same countries – China, Japan, Korea, India, Germany, and Switzerland – were on the Treasury’s monitoring list. https://t.co/4IkXrfChXP
Holger Zschaepitz
Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner 1:39 - 18.10.2018

MITTWOCH, 17.10.2018
18:28 OIL » INVENTORIES »

#Oil prices tumble after large rise in US crude stockpiles. Inventories rise by a surprising 6.5 mln barrels along with a fall in exports. Analysts were expecting a rise of 2.2 mln barrels, according to a Reuters poll. https://t.co/sbcks7wwVu
Holger Zschaepitz
Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner 18:28 - 17.10.2018

18:07 TURKEY » POMPEO »

#Turkey assets fly as Pompeo signals some Turkey sanctions could be lifted following Brunsons release. Turkey Lira jumps while Turkey yields plunge. https://t.co/u6P55hiU5k
Holger Zschaepitz
Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner 18:07 - 17.10.2018

16:43 TURKEY » LIRA »

#Turkey Lira jumps as US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo says the US could lift sanctions. https://t.co/iR1lfgRnnQ
Holger Zschaepitz
Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner 16:43 - 17.10.2018

15:20 ITALY » AVERAGE »

#Italy already on the precipice of a debt spiral. Average yield must fall to 2.63% to regain balance, Rabobank says. https://t.co/H73treGyNt
Holger Zschaepitz
Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner 15:20 - 17.10.2018

14:10 OUCH » SAUDI »

Ouch! Saudi tensions add to Dubai stocks worst year since 2008. Dubai’s main stock gauge is the biggest loser in the region. Average value of stocks trading near the level of 2012. https://t.co/sotrYwK6DS
Holger Zschaepitz
Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner 14:10 - 17.10.2018

12:40 SAUDI » SILICON »

A Saudi backlash threatens US startups. Silicon Valley faces a potentially unsettling fact: The kingdom is now the largest single funding source for US startups. https://t.co/IozgGa39eB
Holger Zschaepitz
Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner 12:40 - 17.10.2018

10:17 DOLLARISATION » CHINA »

De-Dollarisation continues. #China has cut US Treasury Holdings for a third straight month. Beijing reduced ownership by another $6bn to lowest level in >1yr. https://t.co/FI7RmNTJcu
Holger Zschaepitz
Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner 10:17 - 17.10.2018

9:59 THIS » S& »

This chart suggests that S&P500 has to fall 20% as CenBank liquidity will dry up. (Chart via Standard Chartered) https://t.co/DwvMXIhMnI
Holger Zschaepitz
Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner 9:59 - 17.10.2018

7:32 ASIA » WALL »

Asia shares echo Wall St cheer w/ #China more muted after earnings handed investors a welcome distraction from rising yields & trade tensions. 10y US yields steady at 3.16% after US factory data. Dollar mixed as risk sentiment favours EM. Oil higher amid rising Saudi-US tensions. https://t.co/ZQyPtnKVQM
Holger Zschaepitz
Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner 7:32 - 17.10.2018

7:13 GOOD » GERMANY »

Good morning from #Germany, which climbed to 3rd place in the renowned Global Competitiveness Ranking of the @wef. When it comes to mastering the innovation process, Germany is even world champion. https://t.co/iQtbGXju9s via @welt
Holger Zschaepitz
Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner 7:13 - 17.10.2018

3:17 CAPECONOMCS » CHINA »

CapEconomcs gives 3 reasons why China Yuan will breach 7 per Dollar: #China’s econ is likely to weaken further while US econ should continue to do well. Trade tensions w/US likely to escalate further. PBoC will continue w/monetary easing. https://t.co/fg8hJHLJm6
Holger Zschaepitz
Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner 3:17 - 17.10.2018

0:08 OIL » SAUDI »

#Oil makes Saudi Arabia slippery sanctions target. Congress could act on its own w/o Trump’s support. Lawmakers have a good chance of getting support from two-thirds of members in each chamber – enough to stave off a veto. Retaliation could send oil higher https://t.co/LtNM1mTtKe
Holger Zschaepitz
Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner 0:08 - 17.10.2018

DIENSTAG, 16.10.2018
22:53 TURKEY » EUROBOND »

#Turkey back in Eurobond market as Lira turmoil ebbs. Govt is offering $2bn of 5y debt with a yield of 7.5%, lower than initial priced guidance of about 7.75%, BBG writes. https://t.co/dTKwagRevg
Holger Zschaepitz
Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner 22:53 - 16.10.2018

22:47 NETFLIX » HAS »

#Netflix jumps 17% in after hour trading following whopping subscriber numbers. Has gained 96% this year, including Tuesdays post earnings move. https://t.co/TneVEYwExo
Holger Zschaepitz
Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner 22:47 - 16.10.2018