Holger Zschaepitz

Holger Zschäpitz is market maniac at @Welt & Author of 'Schulden ohne Sühne?' a book on states' addictiveness to debt. Pics:
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HEUTE, SONNTAG, 21.10.2018
16:14 US’ » TRUMP »

A safe way to further increase US’ twin deficits (budget balance & current account balance): Trump considers tax-cut sweetener days before crucial midterms. Landmark 2017 tax law has been criticized for helping wealthy.
Holger Zschaepitz
Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner 16:14 - 21.10.2018


Italian markets set for relief as risk of junk rating retreats. Moody’s cut keeps #Italy 1 notch above junk with ‘stable’ outlook.
Holger Zschaepitz
Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner 11:37 - 21.10.2018


#Germany puts military sales to Saudis on hold following the death of government critic Jamal Khashoggi. Saudi Arabia ranked sixth last year with approved sales of 254 million euros.
Holger Zschaepitz
Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner 11:15 - 21.10.2018

10:57 GOOD » MORNING »

Good Morning from #Germany where the Grand Coalition continues to slip in opinion polls. Merkels CDU/CSU drops to 25%, Merkels coalition partner SPD to 15%. The main winners are the Greens, who gain 2 points and now come to 19%. Right wing AfD unchanged at 15%.
Holger Zschaepitz
Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner 10:57 - 21.10.2018

GESTERN, SAMSTAG, 20.10.2018

BlackRock shares have dropped 30% from their peak in a warning sign of deeper problems in the ETF market.
Holger Zschaepitz
Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner 22:58 - 20.10.2018

14:34 ETF » MONSTER »

It looks like the rise of passive has created a ETF Monster. This mnth alone, investors traded $1.4tn of ETFs (32% of consolidated tape) & $1.7tn notional of ETF options, Goldman says. ETFs have seen $15bn of outflows in Oct, led by US Equity, responsible for the recent sell-off.
Holger Zschaepitz
Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner 14:34 - 20.10.2018

10:22 WHAT » WESTERN »

What are Western values worth to us? Trump resists Saudi-Crisis pressure, citing $450bn at risk.
Holger Zschaepitz
Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner 10:22 - 20.10.2018

9:38 AFTER » SAUDI »

After two weeks of shifting stories, Saudi Arabia says Jamal Khashoggi was killed in consulate fist fight. The Saudis initially claimed that Mr. Khashoggi had left the consulate alive, later hinting that the killing might have been the act of rogue agents.
Holger Zschaepitz
Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner 9:38 - 20.10.2018

9:20 ITALY’S » MOODY’S »

#Italy’s credit rating cut by Moody’s to one level above junk on concerns about fiscal strength & stalling of plans for structural reform. Most of govts spending increases are structural in nature, implying that they will be difficult to reverse.
Holger Zschaepitz
Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner 9:20 - 20.10.2018


Good morning from #Germany where banks have cut their financial exposure to #Italy from $95.4bn in Q1 2018 to $91.3bn in Q2 2018, acc to BIS. But German banks have much less to lose than French banks should Italy slide into default. #Frances banks have $315.7bn at risk in Italy.
Holger Zschaepitz
Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner 8:57 - 20.10.2018

FREITAG, 19.10.2018
22:04 HEDGE » FUNDS »

Hedge Funds increase their bearish Euro bets to highest level since Mar2017. Speculators sell another 13,202 contracts; now short 29,344 contracts.
Holger Zschaepitz
Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner 22:04 - 19.10.2018

18:56 EURO » ITALY »

#Euro jumps back >$1.15 on headlines form #Italy. Italy govt may cut 2019 deficit target to 2.1%, Foglio reports. Italy PM Conte has said the govt will meet on Sat to discuss budget and tax issues.
Holger Zschaepitz
Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner 18:56 - 19.10.2018


European Autos are the new banks as Daimlers 2nd profit warning highlights. EuroStoxx Autos now down 22% YTD, almost as negative as EuroStoxx Banks Index.
Holger Zschaepitz
Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner 18:24 - 19.10.2018

17:08 ITALY » ECB »

More trouble for #Italy? #ECB cap key will be rebalanced in Jan2019. Italy will lose approx. 1ppt while Germany will gain same magnitude due to the result of Germany outgrowing Italy on both GDP & population growth. This could have an impact on the PSPP and/or the reinvestments.
Holger Zschaepitz
Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner 17:08 - 19.10.2018

16:25 TURKEY »

#Turkey liras longest rally since 2014 has traders betting the worst is over. I would not be so sure.
Holger Zschaepitz
Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner 16:25 - 19.10.2018


The making of a Podcast: Dietmar and I after the preparations for Episode 25. #deffnerundzschaepitz #workingwithcoolpeople @ WeWork Atrium Tower
Holger Zschaepitz
Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner 15:48 - 19.10.2018

12:04 LOOKS » ITALY »

Looks as if markets have the upper hand. #Italy 5y default probability jumps in showdown between Rome and Brussels.
Holger Zschaepitz
Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner 12:04 - 19.10.2018

11:40 DOOM » DEFAULT »

Doom loop in action. Default probabilities of Italian banks keep rising as #Italys default probability hit 20% on budget woes.
Holger Zschaepitz
Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner 11:40 - 19.10.2018


Italian bonds dont have history on their side. Using the eurozone sovereign debt crisis era as a base, it looks as though the nation is very close to losing the confidence of international investors, John Authers writes.
Holger Zschaepitz
Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner 9:54 - 19.10.2018

9:04 AFTER » ITALY’S »

After EU ramped up criticism of #Italy’s budget plans, calling planned deviation from EU rules “unprecedented,” theres now a clear risk that investors test the 400bps level for the 10y yield spread to bunds. After Red Flag from EU,10y Italy risk spread rises to 328bps.
Holger Zschaepitz
Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner 9:04 - 19.10.2018


Stocks mixed as #China rallies on intervention after country’s growth slowed. China 3Q GDP was slight miss at 6.5%y/y. A top Financial Official voiced support for battered stock mkt, strengthen expectations that authorities will put floor under stocks. Bond yields & Dollar steady
Holger Zschaepitz
Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner 8:56 - 19.10.2018


Good morning from #Germany where house prices keep rising. Europace German House Price Index has hit fresh high at 129.84. Since Feb2010 avg existing homes prices have gained 63% in tandem with ECB balance sheet. In hot spots much more, prices have increased even more.
Holger Zschaepitz
Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner 8:40 - 19.10.2018


Markets getting more & more nervous w/ Saudi Arabia. Default probability jumps as Trump says Khashoggi likely dead, warns of ‘severe’ consequences
Holger Zschaepitz
Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner 1:33 - 19.10.2018


Predicting when the next recession will hit has become so popular that betting odds cant be far behind. There seems to be consensus forming around 2020. US has a greater than 50-50 chance of tipping into a recession in the next two years, JPMorgan says.
Holger Zschaepitz
Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner 0:23 - 19.10.2018

DONNERSTAG, 18.10.2018
14:49 ITALY »

#Italy 10y risk spread jumps to 313bps, highest since 2013 as bond buybacks weigh.
Holger Zschaepitz
Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner 14:49 - 18.10.2018


#coffeebreak! @ Axel-Springer-Passage
Holger Zschaepitz
Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner 13:19 - 18.10.2018


#China doom in one chart: Shanghai Comp plunges in tandem w/ currency. Yuan depreciates to weakest level since Jan2017.
Holger Zschaepitz
Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner 8:56 - 18.10.2018

8:47 OIL » DEBT »

#Oil, #Debt, #Iran, Silicon Valley venture capital. Trump has maneuvered the world into a dangerous dependence on the Saudis. Saudi Arabie is 3rd largest oil producer, biggest tech financier and among the top holders of US Treasuries. via @welt
Holger Zschaepitz
Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner 8:47 - 18.10.2018

8:17 ASIA » FOMC »

Asia stocks falter in the wake of hawkish FOMC minutes, not helped by Yuan sliding after US decided not to label China a currency manipulator. China mkts knocked by renewed trade fears. Yuan hits lowest since 2017. US Treasury yields & Dollar up after Fed minutes. US 10y at 3.20%
Holger Zschaepitz
Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner 8:17 - 18.10.2018


Good Morning from #Germany where Deutsche Bank CEO Sewing & Siemens Boss Kaeser are among a dwindling number of high-profile delegates planning to go to a Saudi investment conference following the disappearance of dissident journalist Jamal Khashoggi.
Holger Zschaepitz
Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner 7:56 - 18.10.2018

1:39 CHINA » YUAN »

US spares China from Yuan-manipulator label amid trade war largely in line with what was leaked to the press late last week. Moreover, the same countries – China, Japan, Korea, India, Germany, and Switzerland – were on the Treasury’s monitoring list.
Holger Zschaepitz
Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner 1:39 - 18.10.2018

MITTWOCH, 17.10.2018

#Oil prices tumble after large rise in US crude stockpiles. Inventories rise by a surprising 6.5 mln barrels along with a fall in exports. Analysts were expecting a rise of 2.2 mln barrels, according to a Reuters poll.
Holger Zschaepitz
Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner 18:28 - 17.10.2018


#Turkey assets fly as Pompeo signals some Turkey sanctions could be lifted following Brunsons release. Turkey Lira jumps while Turkey yields plunge.
Holger Zschaepitz
Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner 18:07 - 17.10.2018

16:43 TURKEY » LIRA »

#Turkey Lira jumps as US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo says the US could lift sanctions.
Holger Zschaepitz
Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner 16:43 - 17.10.2018


#Italy already on the precipice of a debt spiral. Average yield must fall to 2.63% to regain balance, Rabobank says.
Holger Zschaepitz
Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner 15:20 - 17.10.2018

14:10 OUCH » SAUDI »

Ouch! Saudi tensions add to Dubai stocks worst year since 2008. Dubai’s main stock gauge is the biggest loser in the region. Average value of stocks trading near the level of 2012.
Holger Zschaepitz
Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner 14:10 - 17.10.2018


A Saudi backlash threatens US startups. Silicon Valley faces a potentially unsettling fact: The kingdom is now the largest single funding source for US startups.
Holger Zschaepitz
Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner 12:40 - 17.10.2018


De-Dollarisation continues. #China has cut US Treasury Holdings for a third straight month. Beijing reduced ownership by another $6bn to lowest level in >1yr.
Holger Zschaepitz
Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner 10:17 - 17.10.2018

9:59 THIS » S& »

This chart suggests that S&P500 has to fall 20% as CenBank liquidity will dry up. (Chart via Standard Chartered)
Holger Zschaepitz
Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner 9:59 - 17.10.2018

7:32 ASIA » WALL »

Asia shares echo Wall St cheer w/ #China more muted after earnings handed investors a welcome distraction from rising yields & trade tensions. 10y US yields steady at 3.16% after US factory data. Dollar mixed as risk sentiment favours EM. Oil higher amid rising Saudi-US tensions.
Holger Zschaepitz
Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner 7:32 - 17.10.2018


Good morning from #Germany, which climbed to 3rd place in the renowned Global Competitiveness Ranking of the @wef. When it comes to mastering the innovation process, Germany is even world champion. via @welt
Holger Zschaepitz
Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner 7:13 - 17.10.2018


CapEconomcs gives 3 reasons why China Yuan will breach 7 per Dollar: #China’s econ is likely to weaken further while US econ should continue to do well. Trade tensions w/US likely to escalate further. PBoC will continue w/monetary easing.
Holger Zschaepitz
Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner 3:17 - 17.10.2018

0:08 OIL » SAUDI »

#Oil makes Saudi Arabia slippery sanctions target. Congress could act on its own w/o Trump’s support. Lawmakers have a good chance of getting support from two-thirds of members in each chamber – enough to stave off a veto. Retaliation could send oil higher
Holger Zschaepitz
Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner 0:08 - 17.10.2018

DIENSTAG, 16.10.2018

#Turkey back in Eurobond market as Lira turmoil ebbs. Govt is offering $2bn of 5y debt with a yield of 7.5%, lower than initial priced guidance of about 7.75%, BBG writes.
Holger Zschaepitz
Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner 22:53 - 16.10.2018

22:47 NETFLIX » HAS »

#Netflix jumps 17% in after hour trading following whopping subscriber numbers. Has gained 96% this year, including Tuesdays post earnings move.
Holger Zschaepitz
Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner 22:47 - 16.10.2018