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SONNTAG, 16.09.2018
23:16 GFC » AXIOSEDGE »

US households have deleveraged since the GFC. https://t.co/vUOlg6J1Y1 #axiosedge
Holger Zschaepitz
Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner 23:16 - 16.09.2018

MITTWOCH, 19.09.2018
7:39 GOOD » MORNING »

Good Morning from Germany where econ mood has improved dramatically since GFC 2009 but pessimism about future lingers. Only 37% of Germans believe their children will be financially better off than parents. People sympathetic to populist AfD party more neg https://t.co/K2FpDLCzjQ
Holger Zschaepitz
Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner 7:39 - 19.09.2018

FREITAG, 14.09.2018
15:22 GFC » NOMURA »

GFC has created bubble in forecasting crises, Nomura says: Not 1 yr goes by w/o predictions of imminent hyperinflation, debt defaults, recessions. Meanwhile, one crisis1 that did teeter on systemic side, EZ crisis of 2010/12, was missed by everyone. Recommends to focus on 5trends https://t.co/vaNaQHBWsd
Holger Zschaepitz
Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner 15:22 - 14.09.2018

SONNTAG, 09.09.2018
8:53 GOOD » MORNING »

Good Morning from #Germany where the systemic importance of the banks has fallen 10yrs after the Great Financial Crisis (GFC). Deutsche Banks total assets as % of German GDP have shrink from almost 90% on the eve of the GFC to 42% today, lowest level since 2005. https://t.co/NMVX6InQDh
Holger Zschaepitz
Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner 8:53 - 09.09.2018

DIENSTAG, 04.09.2018
9:42 THIS » SINCE »

This is how creditless growth looks like. Since GFC there is de-leveraging in the #Eurozone. Lending expansion to private non-financial comps below nominal GDP growth. https://t.co/2SBuRpB98k
Holger Zschaepitz
Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner 9:42 - 04.09.2018

MONTAG, 20.08.2018
13:04 TURKEY » DOLLAR »

#Turkey is a reminder of why wider emerging market risk is high. Dollar denominated debt in EM has doubled to $7.2tn since the GFC in 2008. https://t.co/M3kxor7YJ4
Holger Zschaepitz
Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner 13:04 - 20.08.2018

MITTWOCH, 01.08.2018
10:35 ITALY’S » GFC »

#Italy’s current account position is one of country’s most improved fundamentals since GFC, DBRS says. Improved by 6.2ppts to surplus of 2.8% of GDP in 2017, highest level since 1997. Has helped narrow Italy’s neg net int investment pos to -6.7% of GDP in 2017 from -24.7% in 2014 https://t.co/MWLUUNIzFe
Holger Zschaepitz
Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner 10:35 - 01.08.2018

DIENSTAG, 19.06.2018
22:56 HAVEN » TREASURIES »

Haven demand caused Treasuries to resume rallying with the 5Y and 10Y leading; yield curve keeps flattening w/the 2s10s slipped below 35bps, the lowest level since 2007 just ahead of the GFC. https://t.co/VfZllak54Y
Holger Zschaepitz
Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner 22:56 - 19.06.2018

SONNTAG, 17.06.2018
19:22 YIELD » JPM »

Yield curve gets serious, JPM says: Last time 7-10y minus 1-3y yield spread of our GBI Broad bond index turned neg was in 2007, ahead of GFC. Before then it had turned very neg after 1997/1998 EM crisis but also in 1999 ahead of a burst in the equity bubble. via @Daniel_March3 https://t.co/AlgFI5WfRD
Holger Zschaepitz
Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner 19:22 - 17.06.2018

DONNERSTAG, 14.06.2018
7:36 TROUBLE » GFC »

TROUBLE! US yield curve keeps flattening w/ US 2s/10s yield spread plunges below 40bps, lowest since GFC. https://t.co/Q1P7JYN0um
Holger Zschaepitz
Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner 7:36 - 14.06.2018

MITTWOCH, 13.06.2018
19:04 GFC » INVESTORS »

7th US rate hike since the end of the GFC looks like a done deal. Investors price in 84% chance Fed raises interest rate by 25bps to 1.75-2%, and 16% chance Fed raises by 50bps to 2-2.25%. https://t.co/I8zIKO1DON
Holger Zschaepitz
Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner 19:04 - 13.06.2018

DIENSTAG, 05.06.2018
9:53 GDP » GFC »

A dozen countries have seen their total indebtedness rise by >50ppts of GDP over past decade, due to some combination of govt borrowing following GFC (Europe, JP, US), corp leverage during easy money era (US, CN, TR); & household overextension due to low rates (AUS, CN, SW, CH). https://t.co/TY2Yp7zgBC
Holger Zschaepitz
Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner 9:53 - 05.06.2018

MONTAG, 04.06.2018
23:05 TECHNOLOGY » GFC »

Technology companies have enjoyed fantastic returns since the GFC in 2009 especially when compared to real economy prices like consumer prices, wages, commodity prices. (via Goldman) https://t.co/mMnSNyGnxu
Holger Zschaepitz
Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner 23:05 - 04.06.2018

MITTWOCH, 02.05.2018
12:17 AMERICA » TRUMP »

America has become the largest exporter of turbulence thx to Trump comments und rising rates: Global market volatility now a ‘Made in the USA’ phenomenon. Implied vol of US stocks runs consistently higher than in Europe for first time since GFC. https://t.co/nkd7o4GiVz
Holger Zschaepitz
Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner 12:17 - 02.05.2018

MONTAG, 02.04.2018
18:24 QUARTER » GFC »

Quarter begins w/ a flattest yield curve since 2008 GFC. US 2s10s yield spread below 0.5%. https://t.co/XIqalJRpc0
Holger Zschaepitz
Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner 18:24 - 02.04.2018

SONNTAG, 25.03.2018
18:24 ICELAND » AFTER »

The comeback kid #Iceland in one chart: After nearly bankrupt in GFC, the country is now investment grade due to their strict banking resolutions. 5y default probability has dropped to 6%. https://t.co/uFZXNqzPgE
Holger Zschaepitz
Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner 18:24 - 25.03.2018

13:25 OFF » NYC »

Off to NYC with stopover in Reykjavík to inspect the comeback Kid #Iceland. GDP per Capita has doubled since GFC. Iceland has risen to one of the richest countries in the world w/ almost $80k per capita. https://t.co/457AGRqcMT
Holger Zschaepitz
Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner 13:25 - 25.03.2018

FREITAG, 16.03.2018
18:04 LIBOR » OIS »

Libor-OIS spread blows out the most since GFC and why it matters. https://t.co/ADpUdTy0PG
Holger Zschaepitz
Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner 18:04 - 16.03.2018

FREITAG, 16.02.2018
0:38 EURO » CITIS »

Euro at $1.40 is among Citis crazy targets. Thinks $1.28 offers immediate resistance as connection to EUR/$ downtrend since GFC. But longer term, Citi still struck by the similarity in price action over 1992-2001-2004 EUR cycle and the current one. https://t.co/Qh9cimxtK9
Holger Zschaepitz
Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner 0:38 - 16.02.2018

SAMSTAG, 03.02.2018
0:05 STOCKS » GFC »

Stocks and bonds suffered concerted selloff, nothing seen since GFC in 2009! https://t.co/CbFwhgI59l
Holger Zschaepitz
Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner 0:05 - 03.02.2018

DONNERSTAG, 01.02.2018
7:13 GOOD » GERMANY »

Good morning from #Germany where German banks may face hit of €1.9bn from their involvement in so-called dividend-stripping practice that resulted in €5.3bn of unpaid taxes, Germanys fin mkt regulator estimates. Banks stocks have already underperformed since GFC. https://t.co/nt9DPRDwcr
Holger Zschaepitz
Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner 7:13 - 01.02.2018

DIENSTAG, 30.01.2018
6:37 GOOD » GERMANY »

Good morning from #Germany where the #Japanification narrative still intact amidst biggest econ boom since GFC, even after latest bond sell-off. Bund yields still mimicking #Japans experience of 90s. https://t.co/w2cTZv3QxW
Holger Zschaepitz
Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner 6:37 - 30.01.2018

SAMSTAG, 27.01.2018
22:09 GLOBALBOOM » EVERY »

#GLOBALBOOM, its lovely while its last: Every one of the world’s big economies is now growing for first time since GFC. https://t.co/MHwsndADfP
Holger Zschaepitz
Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner 22:09 - 27.01.2018