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SONNTAG, 16.09.2018

US households have deleveraged since the GFC. #axiosedge
Holger Zschaepitz
Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner 23:16 - 16.09.2018

MITTWOCH, 19.09.2018

Good Morning from Germany where econ mood has improved dramatically since GFC 2009 but pessimism about future lingers. Only 37% of Germans believe their children will be financially better off than parents. People sympathetic to populist AfD party more neg
Holger Zschaepitz
Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner 7:39 - 19.09.2018

FREITAG, 14.09.2018
15:22 GFC » NOMURA »

GFC has created bubble in forecasting crises, Nomura says: Not 1 yr goes by w/o predictions of imminent hyperinflation, debt defaults, recessions. Meanwhile, one crisis1 that did teeter on systemic side, EZ crisis of 2010/12, was missed by everyone. Recommends to focus on 5trends
Holger Zschaepitz
Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner 15:22 - 14.09.2018

SONNTAG, 09.09.2018

Good Morning from #Germany where the systemic importance of the banks has fallen 10yrs after the Great Financial Crisis (GFC). Deutsche Banks total assets as % of German GDP have shrink from almost 90% on the eve of the GFC to 42% today, lowest level since 2005.
Holger Zschaepitz
Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner 8:53 - 09.09.2018

DIENSTAG, 04.09.2018
9:42 THIS » SINCE »

This is how creditless growth looks like. Since GFC there is de-leveraging in the #Eurozone. Lending expansion to private non-financial comps below nominal GDP growth.
Holger Zschaepitz
Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner 9:42 - 04.09.2018

MONTAG, 20.08.2018

#Turkey is a reminder of why wider emerging market risk is high. Dollar denominated debt in EM has doubled to $7.2tn since the GFC in 2008.
Holger Zschaepitz
Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner 13:04 - 20.08.2018

MITTWOCH, 01.08.2018
10:35 ITALY’S » GFC »

#Italy’s current account position is one of country’s most improved fundamentals since GFC, DBRS says. Improved by 6.2ppts to surplus of 2.8% of GDP in 2017, highest level since 1997. Has helped narrow Italy’s neg net int investment pos to -6.7% of GDP in 2017 from -24.7% in 2014
Holger Zschaepitz
Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner 10:35 - 01.08.2018

DIENSTAG, 19.06.2018

Haven demand caused Treasuries to resume rallying with the 5Y and 10Y leading; yield curve keeps flattening w/the 2s10s slipped below 35bps, the lowest level since 2007 just ahead of the GFC.
Holger Zschaepitz
Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner 22:56 - 19.06.2018

SONNTAG, 17.06.2018
19:22 YIELD » JPM »

Yield curve gets serious, JPM says: Last time 7-10y minus 1-3y yield spread of our GBI Broad bond index turned neg was in 2007, ahead of GFC. Before then it had turned very neg after 1997/1998 EM crisis but also in 1999 ahead of a burst in the equity bubble. via @Daniel_March3
Holger Zschaepitz
Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner 19:22 - 17.06.2018

DONNERSTAG, 14.06.2018
7:36 TROUBLE » GFC »

TROUBLE! US yield curve keeps flattening w/ US 2s/10s yield spread plunges below 40bps, lowest since GFC.
Holger Zschaepitz
Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner 7:36 - 14.06.2018

MITTWOCH, 13.06.2018

7th US rate hike since the end of the GFC looks like a done deal. Investors price in 84% chance Fed raises interest rate by 25bps to 1.75-2%, and 16% chance Fed raises by 50bps to 2-2.25%.
Holger Zschaepitz
Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner 19:04 - 13.06.2018

DIENSTAG, 05.06.2018
9:53 GDP » GFC »

A dozen countries have seen their total indebtedness rise by >50ppts of GDP over past decade, due to some combination of govt borrowing following GFC (Europe, JP, US), corp leverage during easy money era (US, CN, TR); & household overextension due to low rates (AUS, CN, SW, CH).
Holger Zschaepitz
Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner 9:53 - 05.06.2018

MONTAG, 04.06.2018

Technology companies have enjoyed fantastic returns since the GFC in 2009 especially when compared to real economy prices like consumer prices, wages, commodity prices. (via Goldman)
Holger Zschaepitz
Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner 23:05 - 04.06.2018

MITTWOCH, 02.05.2018

America has become the largest exporter of turbulence thx to Trump comments und rising rates: Global market volatility now a ‘Made in the USA’ phenomenon. Implied vol of US stocks runs consistently higher than in Europe for first time since GFC.
Holger Zschaepitz
Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner 12:17 - 02.05.2018

MONTAG, 02.04.2018
18:24 QUARTER » GFC »

Quarter begins w/ a flattest yield curve since 2008 GFC. US 2s10s yield spread below 0.5%.
Holger Zschaepitz
Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner 18:24 - 02.04.2018

SONNTAG, 25.03.2018

The comeback kid #Iceland in one chart: After nearly bankrupt in GFC, the country is now investment grade due to their strict banking resolutions. 5y default probability has dropped to 6%.
Holger Zschaepitz
Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner 18:24 - 25.03.2018

13:25 OFF » NYC »

Off to NYC with stopover in Reykjavík to inspect the comeback Kid #Iceland. GDP per Capita has doubled since GFC. Iceland has risen to one of the richest countries in the world w/ almost $80k per capita.
Holger Zschaepitz
Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner 13:25 - 25.03.2018

FREITAG, 16.03.2018
18:04 LIBOR » OIS »

Libor-OIS spread blows out the most since GFC and why it matters.
Holger Zschaepitz
Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner 18:04 - 16.03.2018

FREITAG, 16.02.2018
0:38 EURO » CITIS »

Euro at $1.40 is among Citis crazy targets. Thinks $1.28 offers immediate resistance as connection to EUR/$ downtrend since GFC. But longer term, Citi still struck by the similarity in price action over 1992-2001-2004 EUR cycle and the current one.
Holger Zschaepitz
Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner 0:38 - 16.02.2018

SAMSTAG, 03.02.2018
0:05 STOCKS » GFC »

Stocks and bonds suffered concerted selloff, nothing seen since GFC in 2009!
Holger Zschaepitz
Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner 0:05 - 03.02.2018

DONNERSTAG, 01.02.2018

Good morning from #Germany where German banks may face hit of €1.9bn from their involvement in so-called dividend-stripping practice that resulted in €5.3bn of unpaid taxes, Germanys fin mkt regulator estimates. Banks stocks have already underperformed since GFC.
Holger Zschaepitz
Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner 7:13 - 01.02.2018

DIENSTAG, 30.01.2018

Good morning from #Germany where the #Japanification narrative still intact amidst biggest econ boom since GFC, even after latest bond sell-off. Bund yields still mimicking #Japans experience of 90s.
Holger Zschaepitz
Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner 6:37 - 30.01.2018

SAMSTAG, 27.01.2018

#GLOBALBOOM, its lovely while its last: Every one of the world’s big economies is now growing for first time since GFC.
Holger Zschaepitz
Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner 22:09 - 27.01.2018