#draghi #ecb
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GESTERN, SAMSTAG, 20.10.2018

Good morning from #Germany where banks have cut their financial exposure to #Italy from $95.4bn in Q1 2018 to $91.3bn in Q2 2018, acc to BIS. But German banks have much less to lose than French banks should Italy slide into default. #Frances banks have $315.7bn at risk in Italy.
Holger Zschaepitz
Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner 8:57 - 20.10.2018

FREITAG, 19.10.2018
17:08 ITALY » ECB »

More trouble for #Italy? #ECB cap key will be rebalanced in Jan2019. Italy will lose approx. 1ppt while Germany will gain same magnitude due to the result of Germany outgrowing Italy on both GDP & population growth. This could have an impact on the PSPP and/or the reinvestments.
Holger Zschaepitz
Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner 17:08 - 19.10.2018


Recht hat er, der Bundeskanzler. Vielleicht möchte er beizeiten Rücksprache halten mit seinem Vizekanzler? Der erklärte nämlich vor ein paar Tagen erst in einem Bozener Partykeller, dass "wir hervorragend mit Salvini zusammenarbeiten." (h/t @JeremyCliffe) #Italy #Eurozone
Oliver Grimm
Oliver Grimm @grimmse 14:28 - 19.10.2018


Good morning from #Germany where house prices keep rising. Europace German House Price Index has hit fresh high at 129.84. Since Feb2010 avg existing homes prices have gained 63% in tandem with ECB balance sheet. In hot spots much more, prices have increased even more.
Holger Zschaepitz
Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner 8:40 - 19.10.2018

DONNERSTAG, 18.10.2018

#Transferunion-#Merkel will offenbar leichtfertig auf #Weidmann als #Draghi-Nachfolger an der Spitze der #EZB verzichten. via @DiePressecom
Christian Ebner
Christian Ebner @ChrisEbner_FM 16:36 - 18.10.2018

DIENSTAG, 16.10.2018
18:22 ECB » TOTAL »

#ECB balance sheet keeps rising. Total assets rose by €7.8bn to €4,632.9bn despite QE bond purchases halved to €15bn per month. Balance sheet now equates to 41% of Eurozone GDP.
Holger Zschaepitz
Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner 18:22 - 16.10.2018

SONNTAG, 14.10.2018

Good morning from Germany, where elections are held in #Bavaria today. Bavaria is exceptional econ powerhouse. Although only 16% of German population live here, they produce 18% of Germanys GDP. Dax comps based in Bavaria equal to 30% of Dax mkt cap @welt
Holger Zschaepitz
Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner 8:33 - 14.10.2018

SAMSTAG, 13.10.2018

Finanzmarkt - Draghi mahnt Italien, Ton in Haushaltsstreit zu mäßigen:
DER STANDARD @derStandardat 12:47 - 13.10.2018

DONNERSTAG, 11.10.2018

#Bundesbanks claims against the Eurosystem resume uptrend. Target2 surplus rose by €44bn in Sep to €956.5bn, on course towards the €1tn mark, on #Eurozone inbalances and #ECB QE.
Holger Zschaepitz
Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner 19:20 - 11.10.2018

14:22 ONE » EUROZONE »

One of the biggest questions for the Eurozone: Once the ECB ends its QE program, who will be the buyer of Italian bonds?
Ronnie Stoeferle,CMT
Ronnie Stoeferle,CMT @RonStoeferle 14:22 - 11.10.2018

DIENSTAG, 09.10.2018
23:19 ECBS » TOTAL »

#ECBs balance sheet resumes uptrend. Total assets rose by €5.2bn to €4,625bn on QE, equates to 42% of Eurozone GDP as ECBs Draghi keeps the printing press rumbling.
Holger Zschaepitz
Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner 23:19 - 09.10.2018

18:07 MUST » LISTEN »

MUST LISTEN TO! Our new @welt podcast deals w/ more mad Musk, asks whether oil will go to $100/bbl. We discuss whether the ECB has overstepped its mandate & we bet if Deffner or I will have more Followers on Instagram by yr-end. Hear us, leave us reviews.
Holger Zschaepitz
Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner 18:07 - 09.10.2018

12:29 OOPS » ITALIAN »

Oops! Italian bonds extend losses. #Italy 10y yields jump >3.7% and this in times when the #ECB is still buying bonds.
Holger Zschaepitz
Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner 12:29 - 09.10.2018

FREITAG, 05.10.2018
18:33 DEBT » ITALY »

Debt mission impossible for #Italy! Based on 1.5% growth rate, to ensure debt/GDP ratio is on path towards 60% Italian govt must run headline deficits of no more than 1.4% of GDP, & even then it could take 25-30yrs before even half of excess deficit has been eroded, Nomura says.
Holger Zschaepitz
Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner 18:33 - 05.10.2018

10:09 ECBS » DRAGHI »

#ECBs Draghi met #Italys president Mattarella on Monday over new budget. ECB says has no comment on reports about a meeting between Draghi and Italian president.
Holger Zschaepitz
Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner 10:09 - 05.10.2018

DONNERSTAG, 04.10.2018
13:07 ECB » EUS »

EU issues a blank check to ECB! #ECB didn’t overstep its mandate by setting up a QE, an adviser to EUs highest court said in the wake of a series of challenges arguing the tool clashed w/ prohibition of monetary financing. #Germany’s Const Court sought the EU judges’ guidance.
Holger Zschaepitz
Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner 13:07 - 04.10.2018

11:07 ECBS » ECB »

#ECBs QE program is in line w/ EU law, EU court aide says.
Holger Zschaepitz
Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner 11:07 - 04.10.2018

MITTWOCH, 03.10.2018

Ridiculous! #Italys bond yields fall after Rome says to cut deficit from 2020. Italy targets deficit falling to 2.2 pct of GDP in 2020. PM, ministers to discus budget later in session.
Holger Zschaepitz
Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner 13:12 - 03.10.2018

13:05 HSBC » ITALY »

HSBC bullish for high quality govt bonds & turns bearish for #Italy. End-2019 forecasts reflect possibility the #Fed will be moving towards easing mode in 2020 & the likelihood that #ECB will struggle to raise rates by very much at all. Sees underlying #inflation to be contained.
Holger Zschaepitz
Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner 13:05 - 03.10.2018


East #Germany is a stock market diaspora. In East Germany (ex Berlin) there are only 13 comps listed on stock exchange. They are worth only €11bn, as little as Commerzbank. Total mkt cap of East comps amounts to only 3% of East German GDP vs 70% for West Germany or 160% for US.
Holger Zschaepitz
Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner 9:25 - 03.10.2018


Good Morning from #Germany on German Unity day. GDP per capita in East now amounts to 72% of Western level, up from 38% before reunification. BUT Econ gap between East & West opens again due to emigration. In 2045, GDP per Capita in Germanys Mezzogiorno will be only 64% of West.
Holger Zschaepitz
Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner 9:12 - 03.10.2018

MONTAG, 01.10.2018

TROUBLE! Cyclical #Eurozone GDP growth looks to have peaked. M1 money supply growth has slowed to 5.9% from 8.3%, points to weakening Eurozone GDP growth as M1 tends to lead real GDP by 12mnths, GaveKal writes.
Holger Zschaepitz
Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner 10:32 - 01.10.2018


Good Morning from Germany where savers got another hit. Real Yields (yields - inflation) has dropped to -1.83%, near life-time low following sharp rise in inflation to 2.3% in Sep. ECB partly to blame for suffering of savers. Acc to Taylor rule, interest rates would have to be 5%
Holger Zschaepitz
Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner 7:26 - 01.10.2018

SONNTAG, 30.09.2018
22:58 ITALYS » GDP »

Just to put things into perspective: #Italys post-crisis recovery lagged badly. GDP still 5% below pre-crisis high, while Germanys GDP 13% above pre-2008 high, Frances 8% and Eurozones 7%. Even #Spain has managed the turnaround.
Holger Zschaepitz
Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner 22:58 - 30.09.2018


Goldman expects #Italys deficit-to-GDP ratio will be 2.9% in 2019, just short of the 3% Maastricht level. Fiscal expansion will lead to LOWER nominal GDP growth b/c it will lead to a sizeable increase in interest rates and a tightening in credit conditions.
Holger Zschaepitz
Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner 15:55 - 30.09.2018

SAMSTAG, 29.09.2018

Goldman sees #Italys public debt on a rising trajectory again following budget deal. Says fiscal expansion not going to have any sizeable pos effect on GDP growth b/c it will lead to sizeable increase in interest & tightening in credit conditions which will crowd out investment.
Holger Zschaepitz
Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner 18:57 - 29.09.2018

FREITAG, 28.09.2018

Just met Columbias Adam Tooze. Great historian, maybe a bit too keynesian, but nevertheless great interview. And he has a solution for #Italy and the #Eurozone. Next week in @welt!
Holger Zschaepitz
Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner 16:46 - 28.09.2018

15:35 MEHR » GEFAHR »

Mehr Gefahr durch Schattenbanken: Draghi will wachsenden Risiken Riegel vorschieben @wotwitt 15:35 - 28.09.2018


#UPDATE Inflation in the eurozone rose above the target level of the European Central Bank, data shows, heaping further pressure on the ECB to scale back its crisis-era stimulus
AFP news agency
AFP news agency @AFP 13:30 - 28.09.2018

DONNERSTAG, 27.09.2018

Comeback of #inflation or just a headfake? #Germanys Consumer Price Index unexpectedly jumps by 2.3% in Sep, highest since Nov2011. Inflation now for the 5th month in a row above #ECB goal of below, but close to, 2%. via @welt
Holger Zschaepitz
Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner 17:34 - 27.09.2018

MITTWOCH, 26.09.2018
10:49 CHINA » ECB »

U.S. has most to lose from trade war, China would benefit: ECB
Reuters Top News
Reuters Top News @Reuters 10:49 - 26.09.2018

10:08 TRADE » CHINA »

Trade war may boost #China while hurting US growth, ECB says. Research shows tariffs could knock 2% off US expansion.
Holger Zschaepitz
Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner 10:08 - 26.09.2018

DIENSTAG, 25.09.2018
17:21 ECB » DRAGHI »

#ECB balance sheet just hit fresh highs as Draghi keeps printing press rumbling. Total assets rose by another €7bn to €4,645.8bn on QE. #ECB balance sheet now equals to 41.6% of Eurozone GDP vs while Feds balance sheet has shrank to 20.6%.
Holger Zschaepitz
Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner 17:21 - 25.09.2018